FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 14:36 GMT
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Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich now expect the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate hikes starting in June, despite recent ceasefire news in the Middle East.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 14:27 GMT
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF) on Friday.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 10:50 GMT
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Commerzbank analysts note that recent dovish comments from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials have left forwards pricing only modest near-term moves but still more than two hikes for 2026.
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 10:21 GMT
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Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymo...
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 09:30 GMT
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Rate cuts by year-endFed: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 75 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting)ECB: 54 bps (79% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 54 bps (78% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (85% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 33 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 16 bps (92% proba...
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 07:23 GMT
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EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything for the ECB and won't be market-moving. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations. The news we've been getting have been mostly positive and just yesterday Israel and Lebanon began a 10-day ceasefire to allow for negotiations. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks yesterday and mentioned that a US-Iran...
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 22:36 GMT
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RBC expects global central banks to largely hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks, with policymakers prioritising growth concerns, while the RBA remains an outlier with further tightening likely.Summary:RBC expects major central banks to hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks Energy shock seen as dampening growth, reducing urgency to hike Fed, BoC, ECB, and BoE all expected to stay on hold through 2026 RBA seen as the outlier, with further tightening likely Inflation expectations ...
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 13:16 GMT
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Every meeting is a live meeting; a lot can happen until April 30 ECB policy meetingMarket pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonableEnergy price developments are not far from baseline but moves volatile, uncertainHave not seen large second-round inflation impacts materialiseFirms may start adjusting prices quicker than in the past given recent experience with inflationAn ECB sources report yesterday played down the chances of an April rate hike and the market has responded by pushing the ...
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 13:15 GMT
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Headlines:Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developmentsAfter 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimismNetflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding?Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be ruled outECB's Villeroy: April hike premature, no rush to actAll members viewed risks to inflation outlook as tilted to the upside, ECB a...
FXStreet Forex
16 Apr 2026, 13:09 GMT
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The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its interest rates unchanged in March, and the meeting accounts released on Thursday show a central bank determined to preserve flexibility in an environment marked by heightened uncertainty.
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 12:45 GMT
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The energy supply shock has had a large impact on near-term inflation compensation in the euro areaLonger-term inflation compensation had remained broadly stableDespite strong increases in spot prices for oil and gas, it was argued that energy markets could still be seen as rather sanguine about the situationThe strong backwardation of futures prices seemed to suggest that a normalisation of global oil and gas supply within the next few months remained a realistic prospectHowever, even if there ...
FXStreet Forex
16 Apr 2026, 12:45 GMT
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BNY reports that European Central Bank (ECB) officials are signaling a preference to hold rates at the April meeting, despite Eurozone inflation rising to 2.6% year-on-year in March. Policymakers stress the need for more data given Iran-related growth and oil risks.
FXStreet Forex
16 Apr 2026, 10:54 GMT
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EUR/CHF trades around 0.9230 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day. The pair is nevertheless rebounding from its intraday low of 0.9198 reached earlier in the day, following the release of the Eurozone’s March inflation data.
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 10:00 GMT
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Prior +1.9%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%No surprises there as euro area inflation is seen picking up in March as a result of surging energy prices. The US-Iran conflict is the main issue impacting the inflation outlook now and will continue to be the case for the months ahead. The monthly inflation estimate is seen rising by 1.3% in March, after a 0.6% increase in February.Amid the surge in oil and gas prices, energy price inflation was seen up 7.0% on the month in March. From an...
FXStreet Forex
16 Apr 2026, 09:34 GMT
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said during European trading hours on Thursday that it is premature to price in an interest rate hike in the policy meeting later this month.
