FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 14:36 GMT
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Nordea’s Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen and Jan von Gerich now expect the ECB to deliver four consecutive 25 bp rate hikes starting in June, despite recent ceasefire news in the Middle East.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 14:27 GMT
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gave a statement at the fifty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF) on Friday.
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 13:32 GMT
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It is vital to be careful about over-responding to high-frequency data, which contrasts with the perspective of financial marketsI am of the opinion that inflation expectations have not lost their anchorThe outlook for inflation seems less bleak than in 2022, largely due to increased slack in the labor marketMaintaining focus on the core goal of hitting the 2% inflation target is essentialTrade-offs must be considered, yet the priority of the inflation mandate should be highlightedMonetary polic...
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 11:39 GMT
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Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said in a program in the United States (US) during the European trading session on Friday that the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the odds of market stresses combining.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 11:02 GMT
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Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that UK gilts and the Pound are underperforming as political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer intensifies. The bank expects Labour’s weak standing and fiscal credibility challenges to weigh on UK assets.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 10:50 GMT
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Commerzbank analysts note that recent dovish comments from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials have left forwards pricing only modest near-term moves but still more than two hikes for 2026.
FXStreet Forex
17 Apr 2026, 10:39 GMT
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EUR/GBP trades around 0.8715 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.06% on the day, as the Euro (EUR) finds moderate support from stronger inflation data in the Eurozone while the Pound Sterling (GBP) remains constrained by cautious signals from the Bank of England (BoE).
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 10:33 GMT
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Full speech hereIn her speech, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, assesses the current state of the global financial system against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shocks. She begins by acknowledging that while the system has shown remarkable resilience over the last six years, weathering a pandemic, wars, and energy crises, history teaches that financial stability is often undermined when optimism overrides caution. She credits mu...
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 10:21 GMT
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Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymo...
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 09:30 GMT
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Rate cuts by year-endFed: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 75 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting)ECB: 54 bps (79% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 54 bps (78% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (85% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 33 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 16 bps (92% proba...
ForexLive
17 Apr 2026, 07:23 GMT
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EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything for the ECB and won't be market-moving. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations. The news we've been getting have been mostly positive and just yesterday Israel and Lebanon began a 10-day ceasefire to allow for negotiations. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks yesterday and mentioned that a US-Iran...
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 22:36 GMT
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RBC expects global central banks to largely hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks, with policymakers prioritising growth concerns, while the RBA remains an outlier with further tightening likely.Summary:RBC expects major central banks to hold rates despite oil-driven inflation risks Energy shock seen as dampening growth, reducing urgency to hike Fed, BoC, ECB, and BoE all expected to stay on hold through 2026 RBA seen as the outlier, with further tightening likely Inflation expectations ...
FXStreet Forex
16 Apr 2026, 16:07 GMT
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ING economist James Smith argues that recent UK GDP strength is likely overstated and expects UK growth to slow as inflation moves towards 4% and real wages fall. He highlights rising energy prices and weaker corporate pricing power as headwinds.
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 13:16 GMT
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Every meeting is a live meeting; a lot can happen until April 30 ECB policy meetingMarket pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonableEnergy price developments are not far from baseline but moves volatile, uncertainHave not seen large second-round inflation impacts materialiseFirms may start adjusting prices quicker than in the past given recent experience with inflationAn ECB sources report yesterday played down the chances of an April rate hike and the market has responded by pushing the ...
ForexLive
16 Apr 2026, 13:15 GMT
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Headlines:Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developmentsAfter 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimismNetflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding?Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be ruled outECB's Villeroy: April hike premature, no rush to actAll members viewed risks to inflation outlook as tilted to the upside, ECB a...
